If you have been following the US elections with enough interest, you would have enough reason to believe the Moody Analytics. They have been historically accurate ever since they began predicting the US Presidential election results, they have been proved wrong only once so far. And the Moody Analytics prediction this time has the writing on the wall – Donald Trump is going to win in 2020!
And that does not stop at just that. The Moody Analytics election models predict that he will be able to romp home with a better margin than what he could do in 2016. Given the fact that Trump has had a Love-Hate relationship with the polls and surveys, we are sure he will stand by this survey.
Not only Trump, even we would want to stand by the predictions. Given the fact that Moody Analytics has not failed since 1980, we do not see any reason as to why it should fail this time. Except for 2016 where it predicted a victory by a slight margin to Hillary Clinton, it has always been accurate with its predictions.
The firm had three models this time and each of them predicts a victory for Trump by a considerable margin and show that Trump’s chances to win in 2020 are better. The three models were based on the Pocketbook model, stock market model, and Unemployment model. Trump is sailing high in all the models.
In essence, the Moody predictions come with a rider though. If the economy does continue to hold on to the current standard and is able to achieve better results, the predictions would indeed come true. Yet another factor that would be decisive in deciding is Trump going to win in 2020 would be the voter turn out.
Like Mark Zandi, the co-author of the paper and the chief economist at the Moody Analytics puts it aptly,
The report goes on to claim that if the voter turns out among the Democrats and independents rise higher than expected, Trump may have to taste defeat.